Deep Blues (4 of 6)

This post, as the title suggests, is going to be about the world's oceans and skies. However, before I get started on the environmental issues concerning air and water, I want to diverge for a minute.

In 1960, Dr. Frank Drake created an equation, that now bears his name, to estimate the number of extraterrestrial life-forms that we might possibly communicate with. Most of the parameters in his equation cannot be established with any certainty, but the results are quite interesting. Below, I list the factors in his equation, along with an *Optimistic*, a best guess and a (pessimistic) estimation.

R - Average rate of star formation in our galaxy - Known to be ~7/yr

multiplied by

Fp - Fraction of those stars which form planets - *.5*, .15, (.05)

multiplied by

Ne - Number of above planets/moons per solar system that could potentially support life - *2*, 1.5, (.05)

multiplied by

Fl - Fraction of above that actually develop life - *1*, .33, (.13)

multiplied by

Fi - Fraction of the above that develop intelligent life - *.5*, .01, (.001)

multiplied by

Fc - Fraction of the above that are willing and able to communicate with us- *.1*, .01, (.01)

multiplied by

L - The average length of time the above state persists - *100,000*, 10,000, (500)

These estimations suggest the following results:

The number of intelligent species that exist is likely between 1 (ourselves) and 35,000, with the best guess being around 50. The number that are willing and able to communicate with us is much lower, between zero and 3,500, with a best guess of either zero or one. This would explain the Fermi Paradox, which states "if extraterrestrial life is so common, why haven't we observed it?"

The point of all this is to illustrate that the development of humanity was quite unlikely, given the relatively small numbers above compared with estimates of 200-400 billion stars in our galaxy. Even if you look at all the instances that could have existed in the lifetime of our galaxy (assuming the first terrestrial planets forming around 6 billion years ago, an average time to the creation of life of a billion years and about 4.5 billion years on average to get from microbes to intelligence), the best guess is about 2.5 million instances of intelligent life, and only 25,000 with the capacity and willingness to communicate. In such a huge galaxy, it is an indication that our planet and ourselves are really quite a rarity.

Two factors which enabled the unlikely event of human sentience were the abundance of water on earth (water being a particularly useful substance for life) and the particular composition of our atmosphere (influenced by life), which created enough of a greenhouse effect to make Earth habitable, but did not turn us into another Venus, with oven-like surface temperatures.

It is therefore critical to our survival as a race to develop ways of managing our water and our air. If we are ever to leave Earth, and exist in either closed habitats in outer space or on the moon, or undertake massive geoengineering to terraform Mars or Venus into places that humans can live (thereby removing most significant threats to humanity's continued existence), it will become even more important.

Fortunatley, of all our environmental challenges, this is the one where the most effective action has already been taken. Programs to reduce ozone layer depletion and acid rain have been resounding successes. General air pollution reduction programs have also been successful. The remaining challenges mostly lie with the following externalities:

1. Industrial runoff and human/agricultural waste are damaging water quality (both fresh and ocean) around the world. This is resulting in ecosystem damage as well as human water shortages and increased incendences of diseased/unsafe water.

2. Since fresh water is not well-regulated, it results in a tragedy of the commons, where it is in everyone's interest to overexploit the resource. This is creating fresh water shortages in many countries.

3. There are still significant problems with non-CO2 air pollutants, which contribute less to GHG emissions but more to other problems of air pollution.

4. In many areas, the human population has simply exceeded the carrying capacity of the available water resources. Once again, this is an externality associated with population growth, but can be addressed as a water management issue.

I would propose the following strategies to address these problems:

1. My previous proposals to reduce GHG's must be implemented, as the reduction in use of fossil fuels for transport and power generation will also result in the reduction of other air pollutants.

2. Existing regulations on air pollution should be harmonized around the world, and tightened in the areas where there is scientific consensus (such as for the emission of ozone). Once harmonization is complete, I would advocate gradual tightening of regulations over time.

3. The increased urbanization I previously proposed would make water recycling and waste management easier, and decrease agricultural runoff. It would also help (along with renewable power generation) to make desalination a more economically viable option.

4. Continued research into types of plastics that biodegrade and programs to reduce plastic use in general would help alleviate detrimental effects of plastic waste.

5. In areas of water scarcity, some type of tax on excessive water usage is probably a worthwhile consideration. It fits with my overall belief about taxing bad things rather than good things.

6. Some of the ideas I will present in my next post, about carrying capacity and general resource use, have implications for these issues as well.